The “Will Gas Hit $5 a Gallon?” Edition

This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss whether Trump will be willing to endure the political pain if his capricious Iran war causes gas to hit $5 a gallon, the system of ICE mega-prisons DHS is starting to build, and new fronts in Trump’s efforts to control the 2026 elections and beyond.

Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:

Paul Burkhardt, Julian Lee, Anthony Di Paola, and Elena Mazneva for Bloomberg: How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply

John Dickerson on Substack: Why is the U.S. at War With Iran?

Malachy Browne and Aaron Boxerman for The New York Times: Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base

Hannah Allam, ProPublica: The U.S. Built a Blueprint to Avoid Civilian War Casualties. Trump Officials Scrapped It.

Reed Abelson for New York Times: A Third of Americans Have Cut Spending or Borrowed Money for Health Care

Philip Elliott for Time: Kristi Noem’s Removal Was About Optics, Not Policy

The Editors of National Review: Noem Out

Justin Elliott, Joshua Kaplan, and Alex Mierjeski for ProPublica: Firm Tied to Kristi Noem Secretly Got Money From $220 Million DHS Ad Contracts

Maria Sacchetti and N. Kirkpatrick for The Washington Post: How ICE officers defied court orders as immigrant arrests soared in Minneapolis

Allison McCann, Helmuth Rosales, and Eric Rabinowitz for The New York Times: How ICE Plans to Put 8,500 Immigrants in This Warehouse

Heather Hollingsworth and Morgan Lee for the Associated Press: ICE’s purchases for big detention centers are marked by secrecy, frustrating towns

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, Sarah Fitzpatrick, and Nick Miroff for The Atlantic: Arizona Is Now at the Center of Election Investigations

Jordain Carney for Politico: John Thune says he’s ready to take the filibuster heat

Jay Kuo for The Status Kuo (Substack): They’re At It Again With Election Subversion

Here are this week’s chatters:

Emily: Ella Lee for The Hill: As DOJ lawyers face complaints, agency seeks tighter grasp on state bar ethics probes; Devlin Barrett and Jonah E. Bromwich for The New York Times: Trump Justice Dept. Seeks to Stall State Bar Discipline of Its Lawyers; Gregory Svirnovskiy and Jacob Wendler for Politico: DC Bar moves to sanction Ed Martin for DEI push

John: Katherine Kornei for The New York Times: Tree Rings Reveal Origins of Some of the World’s Best Violins; NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information: International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB); The University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research: About Tree Rings

David: Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling for The New Republic: Pete Hegseth Blew Billions on Fruit Basket Stands, Chairs, and Crab; Open the Books: Pentagon Should Focus on Defense Priorities, not Lavish Dinners, After Historic $93.4B “Use-It-or-Lose-It” September

Listener chatter from Mason Cash in Oviedo, Florida: a Major Questions Doctrine song in the style of Gilbert & Sullivan!

THE DOCTRINE:

I am the very model of

the major questions doctrine.

I help explain the reasons for

the very messed up spot we’re in.

I know the cases relevant

from recent and from yesteryear,

From Clean Air Act to student loans

and rules that raise the fiscal fear;

From ICE arrests to vaccines

and from wetlands to the internet,

From banking fees to healthcare plans

that lawyers find inveterate,

Agencies should be creatures

of the laws that gave them genesis,

Not sovereigns over-reaching

in a spate of legal cleverness

THE CHORUS:

Not sovereigns over-reaching

in a spate of legal cleverness

Not sovereigns over-reaching

in a spate of legal cleverness

Not sovereigns over-reaching

in a spate of legal clever cleverness

THE DOCTRINE:

I quote the Court with reverence

and just a hint of irony,

While threading fine distinctions

‘gainst administrative tyranny.

When stakes are high and presidents

make moves authoritarian,

I ask if Congress meant to grant

a scope so libertarian.

I parse the words of Congress

with a scholar’s careful diligence,

And bristle at the expansive claims

of sweeping presidential sense,

So when I see an agency

grow suddenly imperial,

I ask for textual evidence,

that this is what the Congress wills

THE CHORUS:

He asks for textual evidence,

that this is what the Congress wills

He asks for textual evidence,

that this is what the Congress wills

He asks for textual evidence,

that this is what the Congress Congress wills

THE DOCTRINE;

I ought to be a neutral rule,

sober and librarian,

But I’m oft’ employed as a party tool,

fickle and contrarian.

The supreme court often uses me

in ways quite arbitrarious,

If it weren’t for dire consequences,

it would be hilarious

I should be applied consistently,

impeccably nonpartisan,

But I somehow shut down Democrats

and free up the Republican.

But still, in matters regulatory,

political, and temporal,

I am the very model

of the major questions principle!

THE CHORUS:

He is the very model

of the major questions principle!

He is the very model

of the major questions principle!

He is the very model

of the major questions principle!

For this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, Emily, John, and David discuss last weekend’s attempted bomb attack in front of Gracie Mansion in NYC, and how it somehow managed to be a terrorism story, a protest story, and a media story all in one.

In the latest Gabfest Reads, John Dickerson talks with Father James Martin about his new book, Work in Progress: Confessions of a Busboy, Dishwasher, Caddy, Usher, Factory Worker, Bank Teller, Corporate Tool, and Priest. They discuss the spiritual lessons learned through eight different jobs, Martin’s controversial LGBTQ ministry that made him a target of criticism within the Catholic Church, and what the Gospels demand about welcoming strangers and caring for the marginalized.

Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)

Podcast production by Nina Porzucki

Research by Emily Ditto

You can find the full Political Gabfest show pages here.

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poFind out more about David Plotz’s monthly tours of Ft. DeRussy, the secret Civil War fort hidden in Rock Creek Park.

Bonus Episode

Bonus: Bombs at Gracie and a Post that Bombed

Two American teenagers cite ISIS as inspiration for attacking protestors in NYC with homemade bombs.